How often do you find yourself putting off a (probably, mundane) task until the very last minute?
How often do you overestimate your ability to deliver something on time which leads to anxiety, long workdays, and restless sleep?
I promise this is not a guilt trip; these are common behaviors exhibited by nearly
everyone, particularly growth-focused people who take on a lot and are typically productive.
This dreadful mix of overoptimism, procrastination, and last-minute rush are classic examples of Parkinson’s Law and/or the Planning fallacy in action.
What is Parkinson’s Law
Cyril Northcote Parkinson, a British naval historian, was the first to introduce the eponymous law in his satirical essay for the Economist in 1955.
He elaborated on this concept in his book “Parkinson´s Law: The Pursuit of Progress”, where he shared an anecdote about a woman and her only task for that day:
To send a postcard.
Despite the simplicity of the task which would normally take a few minutes, she spent an entire day completing it.
How?
By spending an hour searching for the card, another 30 minutes looking for her glasses, 90 minutes writing the card, 20 minutes deciding whether or not to take an umbrella with her on the way to the mailbox, and so on until her entire day was consumed.
In other words, Parkinson’s Law is the idea that your work will expand to fill the time allotted for its completion.
Why Work Expands to Fill the Time Available
It´s the human condition, researchers conclude; a fine mix of perfectionism, procrastination, having “too many cooks in the kitchen” and so on.
Of course, that is not an issue that only individuals might face;
Microsoft repeatedly postponed a highly anticipated feature for Windows 10 before quietly abandoning it altogether. Apple delayed the launch of their HomePod, stating they needed “a little more time” to perfect it. Even the Sydney Opera House, which was originally planned to be completed in four years, ultimately took 14 years to finish.
“Wait a minute, what about when the time is not enough? I monitor myself and my team and the time is simply not enough.”
Well, you have just reached the other side of the spectrum of productivity problems.
The Planning Fallacy
Research has shown that, on average, people take three times longer to finish a task
than they predict.
The main reason behind this is our tendency to underestimate the time and effort
required for a task.
We often have an optimistic outlook and maybe we use the adrenaline of a tight timeline to boost our efforts, but in reality, unforeseen obstacles, last-minute “urgent” requests, and delays tend to pop up along the way.
Why do we overestimate our capabilities?
The Planning fallacy plays on several cognitive biases, meaning we cannot
adequately factor in “unknown unknowns” (or factors that we don´t know about) when planning for the future.
No matter how many projects we’ve managed and deadlines or budgets we’ve met,
we will almost always go into new projects with limited information about what they
actually require from us.
We know, to some degree, that this belief (or bias) toward our ability to complete a
task may be relying on a vague memory of a time when we accomplished a similar
task.
Not only is the memory influencing our bias unreliable; it also does not accurately reflect
the demands of the new project.
We also know projects evolve as we work on them and that the finished product can
look quite different from what we envisioned when we started.
We may even know that our over-optimism is a product of comparison in group dynamics.
Enter the logic: your co-worker published a bid in one week, therefore you
can too.
Do you suffer from Parkinson's law or the Planning fallacy? How to tell.
Credits: Adson Cunha
Make a mental note every time you recognize a familiar pattern:
External pressure from stakeholders: Planning fallacy occurs when
pressure from stakeholders leads to going along with their requests and poorly estimating the time and resources needed to meet deadlines.
Overoptimism: The planning fallacy manifests as an unrealistic belief that “only good things will happen, no obstacles down the road” which leads to unrealistic expectations about the ease and speed of completing tasks.
Lack of knowledge in business or technology: The planning fallacy is unavoidable when there is limited knowledge of business processes or the tools that are needed to complete a project which results in underestimating its complexities.
Laziness: Parkinson´s Law is reflected in laziness, where tasks (and excuses) expand to fill the available time, reducing productivity. That´s why efficient monitoring and keeping stats is essential - numbers do not lie.
Lack of motivation: Parkinson´s Law is evident when there is a lack of motivation because of the nature of the task (eg innovative minds hate mundane tasks and tend to drag them out longer than necessary)
Inefficient monitoring: Parkinson's Law is at play when poor monitoring allows tasks to take longer than they should, reducing efficiency. “If you can't measure it, you can't manage it”
Long-duration activities: Parkinson's law tends to be the norm in environments where long-term or recurring (eg annual) projects occur eg an annual conference or launching a new product in 6 months
What´s your score? Do you experience Parkinson´s Law or Planning fallacy more?
Depending on your score, you have now a better understanding of your natural tendencies - which is half the battle. And if you have a team, you might have an idea of your team´s patterns.
Let´s see how seasoned entrepreneurs handle the matter.
What growth-focused startup founders do daily
I had the privilege to work for and alongside brilliant founders through the years and the opportunity to observe their habits.
For them, overcoming Parkinson´s law or the planning fallacy comes down to two primary strategies: optimization (of themselves and their business processes) and efficient delegation.
Overcoming “Lack of knowledge in business or technology”: Consulting with peers
They regularly consult with team members, peers, or experts who are knowledgeable in areas they are not. Getting their input on time estimates can help you to balance your own biases; different perspectives often yield a more rounded, realistic view.
Overcoming “Laziness or lack of motivation”: Taking breaks to walk
As prescribed by Aristotle and Nietzsche, incorporating walks during work hours is paramount for clearing the mind and boosting creativity. Successful startup founders dedicate at least half an hour a day, especially after lunch, to take a walk and clear their heads.
Overcoming “Inefficient monitoring”: Doubling down on tools
Growth-focused founders religiously leverage tools to solve inefficient monitoring. Examples include Asana and monday.com to monitor productivity, Pomodoro to help with time management strategies, and Zapier for automation, to streamline processes and monitor progress efficiently.
Overcoming “external pressure from stakeholders”: Working flexible hours
They apply the Pareto Principle, which suggests that 80% of outcomes result from 20% of causes and they avoid a standard 40-hour work week. This may mean they work 30 or 60 hours a week, depending on the task at hand. Focus is kept on high-impact tasks, which helps to manage pressure from external stakeholders while significantly increasing productivity.
What growth-focused startup founders do monthly
Mentor appointments: They invest in mentorship to address gaps in business knowledge and motivation.
Face-to-face client meetings: They meet with top clients or prospects to get
a reality check and tackle issues like over-optimism and lack of industry
knowledge.
Continuous learning: They attend webinars, and conferences themselves or send their teams and invest in continuous learning and development.
Capital Raising: They actively seek opportunities to pitch their business idea, test and validate their initial premises, and raise capital by reaching out to potential partners, and investors or applying for grants. External validation works as a great reality check and is essential when it comes to growth so they do all the above consistently.
In fact, if you are an innovator with an idea that is not yet commercialized, it might be optional to prioritize applying for public funding. The EIC Accelerator for example (EIC 2024 Work Programme) allows you to submit up to 3 unsuccessful applications, at any stage of the process and for any form of support.
Regarding the Innovate UK Smart Grants funding competition, you can apply up to two times for the same project.
It is a daunting task - collecting and organizing all the necessary documents, studying each scheme's eligibility criteria, etc - and people tend to outsource and hire consultants.
That's why Typewiser was created; to empower each innovator to present their ideas to grant proposal evaluators themselves, at a fraction of the cost of a funding consultant.
Not only that; you will be able to access expert funding advice at any time of the day for the application itself as well as any other aspect of the capital raising process eg how to create a compelling video pitch, tailor-made for EIC Accelerator criteria or the Innovate UK Smart Grants.
Now that you have identified your patterns and know what to do about them in order to accelerate your growth, let´s zoom out and focus on the overarching idea:
Your attention is limited and, therefore extremely valuable.
If you take one thing from this blog, let it be that:
Do not make your cognitive load worse than it can be because you block your best ideas.
We each have a limited cognitive load.
On average, we spend 12 minutes on a task before we are interrupted. Considering
it takes at least 25 minutes to return to a task, we know that removing distractions
from our work environment is essential for managing our cognitive load.
That’s 720 hours per year lost to workplace distractions and 127 hours lost to
regaining focus.
Attention is currency. If our cognitive load isn’t properly managed, our brains can
become overwhelmed, leading to poor performance and missed opportunities for
growth.
While we can’t remove every minor distraction during our workday, left unmanaged,
even the most minor interruptions can add up fast, costing us time and money.
Parkinson´s Law and the Planning fallacy both contribute to increased cognitive load,
by causing us to either overestimate how quickly we can get things done or
underestimate how long a task will take.
By recognizing your patterns, monitoring your cognitive load, and applying best practices, you can streamline your growth and reach your goals as fast as you are supposed to.
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